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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."