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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.